2025 Market Shock: Gold’s Historic Run, a Weaker Dollar, and a World Rethinking Risk
London, December 31 —
Few investors expected calm in 2025, but even seasoned market veterans were caught off guard by the scale and direction of this year’s moves. With Donald Trump back in the White House, markets were reshaped by aggressive trade policies, geopolitical bargaining, and rising concerns over global debt — producing one of the most unconventional years in recent financial history.
Stocks Rise — But the Leadership Changes
Global equities rebounded strongly after April’s tariff-driven selloff and finished the year up around 21%. World stock market capitalization expanded by roughly $15 trillion, marking yet another year of double-digit gains.
However, the rally was far from uniform. The dominance of mega-cap U.S. tech began to fade after Nvidia briefly became the world’s first $5 trillion company in October. Since then, the so-called “Magnificent Seven” have lost momentum, signaling a rotation away from crowded trades.
Gold Steals the Spotlight
The undisputed winner of 2025 was gold. Prices surged close to 65%, delivering the metal’s strongest annual performance since the 1979 oil crisis. As confidence in fiat currencies weakened and geopolitical risks intensified, investors returned en masse to the traditional safe haven.
Silver and platinum followed with explosive gains of around 145% and 125%, underscoring a broader revaluation of hard assets.
Dollar Retreat, Emerging Markets Shine
The U.S. dollar had one of its worst years in decades, sliding nearly 10%. The euro and Swiss franc both climbed around 14%, while a broad range of emerging-market currencies posted double-digit gains. Analysts now argue that a 14-year bear cycle in EM currencies may have finally ended.
Local-currency emerging-market bonds recorded their strongest year since 2009, even as developed-market bond investors remained uneasy about rising long-term yields and expanding term premia.
Bonds, Oil, and Crypto Tell a Different Story
Despite multiple U.S. rate cuts, long-dated Treasury yields spiked above 5% earlier in the year before settling lower, reflecting persistent concerns about fiscal spending and debt sustainability.
Oil prices fell nearly 18% amid demand uncertainty and geopolitical recalibration. Bitcoin, after reaching a record above $125,000 in October, reversed sharply and will close the year lower — a reminder that speculative assets remain highly sensitive to liquidity and sentiment.
2026: Calm or the Next Shock?
As markets head into 2026, investors face a complex mix of elevated valuations, political uncertainty, and unanswered questions around artificial intelligence spending, central-bank independence, and global conflicts.
What is clear is that 2025 marked a turning point. Old assumptions were challenged, traditional correlations broke down, and capital flowed in unexpected directions. For many, this was not just a volatile year — it was a signal that the rules of the market game may be changing.