Ark Invest: 65% of Bitcoin Supply Not Vulnerable to Quantum Threat

Ark Invest and Unchained estimate that roughly 65.4% of Bitcoin’s supply is not exposed to a quantum computing breakthrough, leaving about 34.6% at some risk. That at-risk portion includes around 5 million BTC (25% of the total) viewed as migratable due to address re-use, 1.7 million BTC (8.6%) in legacy P2PK addresses, and roughly 200,000 BTC (about 1%) tied to P2TR addresses.

The paper says funds would be vulnerable only if quantum computers can break Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), a capability Ark sizes at roughly 2,330 logical qubits and tens of millions to billions of quantum gates. Ark adds that reaching those performance levels would likely take substantial time.

A February CoinShares analysis offered a narrower estimate, putting realistically market-relevant quantum-vulnerable Bitcoin at about 10,200 BTC (around 0.05%). Separately, Chicago-based PsiQuantum expects to finish a one-million-physical-qubit facility in 2027, backed by $1 billion from BlackRock-linked funds.

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