Arthur Hayes: Iran conflict could prompt Fed easing and lift Bitcoin

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued in a March 2 essay titled "iOS Warfare" that prolonged US military engagement with Iran would increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts and money printing, a dynamic he believes would push Bitcoin higher. Hayes traces the pattern back four decades, saying every US president since 1985 launched missile strikes or full-scale wars in the Middle East and that the Fed has tended to ease policy afterward.

He cites the 1990 Gulf War, when the Fed cut rates in November and December, and the emergency 50‑basis‑point cut after the September 11 attacks, while noting that in 2009 rates were already at zero and quantitative easing was underway. He supported his thesis with a chart showing the share of the federal budget going to the Department of Veterans Affairs rising twice as fast as overall federal spending since 1985, alongside declining effective Fed Funds Rates after major military engagements.

United States, Iran, Middle East

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