Bearish XRP Metric Sparks Bullish Hopes; $1.70 Reclaim Possible

XRP remains under pressure, trading inside a long-term falling channel and down roughly 25% on a monthly basis, with recovery attempts repeatedly capped near the channel's upper trend line and the price drifting toward the lower boundary. Exchange flows have flipped positive, showing a net increase of about 396 million XRP on exchanges over the rolling 30‑day metric, a signal that short-term sell-side pressure has resumed and that sellers retain near-term control.

On-chain HODL Waves indicate that short-term cohorts have pared holdings while long-term holders (wallets over 155 days) continue to accumulate. A fresh cost-basis cluster around $1.57–$1.58 comprising more than 520 million XRP now acts as a growing support zone, suggesting redistribution rather than broad capitulation.

Momentum shows a bullish CMF divergence as capital inflows rose while prices fell, with CMF nearing the neutral line. Key levels to watch: support at $1.48 (break risks $1.25 and then $0.94) and resistance at $1.70 (then $1.97 and $2.42).

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