Bitcoin Bear Market May Persist Despite Recent Relief Rally

Bitcoin remains capped below $70,000 as a persistent downtrend has limited upside attempts for weeks. The Pi Cycle Top Indicator, which compares the 111-day moving average to twice the 350-day moving average, places the market in a mid-cycle bearish consolidation rather than at an extreme, and similar phases in past cycles have lasted a year or longer.

On-chain metrics add to the caution. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) sits below 1, indicating many investors are selling at a loss, while the Money Flow Index shows capital outflows outweighing inflows. Global macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are amplifying risk aversion and constraining aggressive accumulation.

Price action remains under sustained pressure. Bitcoin was trading at $66,443 and confined beneath a descending resistance line active for nearly a month, with repeated failures to break above that barrier. A drop below $65,000 would likely expose the $62,893 support level, which has already been tested twice this week.

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