How Severe Is This Bitcoin Bear Market and Where Is Price Headed Next?

Bitcoin recently experienced a sharp sell-off that nearly dragged the price down to the $60,000 level before a swift bounce. Dip buying helped BTC stabilize, but the rebound looks more like a temporary pause within a broader corrective phase, leaving the path forward uncertain.

Relative Unrealized Loss surged to roughly 24% during the drop, a level well above the typical bull–bear transition zone and placing the market firmly in bearish territory. The metric remains below extreme capitulation levels historically seen above 50%, suggesting an active capitulation process rather than a final bottom.

On-chain distribution shows wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC have been steadily increasing their share, while wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC registered mild net distribution. At the same time, new addresses conducting first on-chain transactions rose by about 37%, indicating fresh participation even as public sentiment remains overwhelmingly bearish.