Bitcoin Bottom Signal Fires But This Time Investor Risk Appetite Is Absent

A Bitcoin bottom signal that preceded a 130% rally in 2024 has appeared again this week, suggesting the price may be nearing another bullish inflection point. At the same time, liquidity, exchange-traded fund flows and macroeconomic conditions differ from two years ago, so the path forward may not mirror the previous cycle.

Data aggregator Swissblock noted that Bitcoin has now logged 25 consecutive days in its "extreme high risk" zone, the longest stretch on record and above the 23-day peak seen in 2023; historically, an extended stay in this zone has aligned with late-stage drawdowns or a bottom signal.

Michaël van de Poppe pointed to the BTC versus supply in the profit/loss chart, which shows the price interacting with levels that previously marked bottoming phases. In 2023, the shift from high risk to low risk coincided with the start of a powerful bullish expansion.

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