Bitcoin Bounce Raises Unrealized Profits 90%, Risk of Drop to $58,880 Looms

Bitcoin climbed about 9% between February 12 and 15 while futures open interest rose from $19.59 billion to $21.47 billion, an increase of roughly $1.88 billion. Funding rates turned strongly positive toward +0.34%, reflecting heavy long positioning. The rebound unfolded inside a bear flag, and price is already drifting toward the pattern’s lower boundary, suggesting the recovery is weakening.

Momentum is signaling caution: between February 6 and 15 the price formed a lower high while the RSI made a higher high, a hidden bearish divergence that often precedes renewed selling. Net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) surged from 0.11 on February 5 to 0.21 on February 14, an increase of about 90%.

A similar NUPL level appeared on February 4 when Bitcoin was near $73,000 before falling to around $62,800 the next day. Key support sits at $66,270; a break below would target $58,880, near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and roughly a 14% decline from current prices.

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