Bitcoin’s Chance Of Returning To $90K By March Is Slim

Cointelegraph reports Bitcoin slid below $63,000 on Thursday, its lowest level since November 2024, after a roughly 30% drop following a failed attempt to break $90,500 on Jan. 28. Options markets show little optimism: a Deribit March call to buy Bitcoin at $90,000 traded at $522, which the Black‑Scholes model reflects as under 6% odds of BTC reaching $90,000 by late March.

The right to sell at $50,000 for the same date traded at $1,380, implying about a 20% probability of a deeper crash. Traders pointed to weak US job market data and concerns over massive AI sector capital expenditure as drivers of risk aversion, alongside emerging quantum computing risks and fears that companies holding Bitcoin reserves via debt and equity could face forced liquidations.

The report highlights corporate strains, noting Strategy (MSTR US) had an enterprise value of $53.3 billion against a $54.2 billion cost basis and Japan’s Metaplanet was valued at $2.95 billion versus a $3.78 billion acquisition cost.

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