Bitcoin could fall another 30% as four-year cycle deepens

Bitcoin is in the deepest phase of a bear market and could fall another 30% in 2026, CK Zheng, founder of crypto investment firm ZX Squared Capital, said in an email. He cited the "four-year cycle" and the Iran war as key catalysts.

The cryptocurrency has already nearly halved since peaking at over $126,000 in October last year and is trading around $68,000.

Investors point to a four-year pattern tied to the quadrennial mining reward halving. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024; block rewards now emit 3.125 BTC, down from the original 50 BTC after four halving events.

Zheng warned the cycle is hard to break because individual investors tend to buy during hype and sell during panic. He said bitcoin still behaves more like a speculative asset than a safe haven, and that limited institutional adoption and potential selling by firms holding bitcoin as treasury assets could deepen the downturn, meaning the bear market may have further to run.

bitcoin, bear market, four-year cycle, halving, ck zheng, zx squared, iran war, 2026, institutional adoption, treasury assets