Bitcoin faces new headwind as rate-hike odds rise

Weeks after markets expected multiple Federal Reserve cuts in 2026, traders are now pricing in a possible hike as soon as April. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 12% chance of tightening next month, up from 0% a week earlier, as the economy shows only faint signs of slowing, inflation runs above the 2% target and oil has jumped 50% in three weeks.

February data had headline inflation at 2.4% and core at 2.5%, figures recorded before the Iran war and the recent oil spike. Long-term bonds have reacted quickly. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rose another 10 basis points to 4.38% on Friday, after trading under 4% at the start of March, and the selloff is global: 10-year gilt yields in the U.K.

have climbed above 5%, up about 15% in the past month and at their highest level since 2008. Equity and precious-metal markets are feeling the strain. The S&P 500 fell another 0.9% on the day and is set for a fourth straight weekly decline, more than 5% lower since late February, while the Nasdaq also slipped, including a 1.2% drop on Friday.

United States

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