Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Remains Intact Amid Recent Sell-Off

Kaiko Research says Bitcoin's recent correction fits the four-year halving cycle. The price fell from a cycle peak near $126,000 to roughly $60,000–$70,000 in early February, a drawdown of about 52% that mirrors prior post-halving bear markets. The 2024 halving occurred in April, with the top arriving roughly 12–18 months later, consistent with past cycles.

Kaiko notes structural changes — spot Bitcoin ETFs, clearer regulation and a more mature DeFi ecosystem — have changed how volatility behaves but did not prevent the expected retracement. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $2.1 billion in outflows during the sell-off, amplifying downside pressure and showing that institutional access moves liquidity in both directions.

Market metrics point to significant deleveraging: stablecoin dominance stands at 10.3%, funding rates have fallen close to zero, and futures open interest has dropped by about 55%.

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