Bitcoin further decouples from global M2 in early 2026 as analysts remain split

Beincrypto reports that Bitcoin has shown signs of decoupling from the growth of the global M2 money supply since mid-2025, and that divergence has become more pronounced by early 2026. Analysts are deeply divided on what the trend means. A January report from Fidelity Digital Assets said it continues to see a positive correlation between M2 and Bitcoin, arguing that "Bitcoin bull cycles usually coincide with periods when M2 accelerates" and adding, "As a new monetary easing cycle has begun globally and with the Fed’s QT program ending, it is likely that we will see this growth rate continue to the upside throughout 2026, a positive catalyst for bitcoin’s price." Analyst MartyParty used a 50-day lag comparison and predicted a near-term rebound, saying, "Bitcoin vs Global Liquidity – Lagged 50 days.

M2 says we bounce here — Jan 12th." But other data and voices point to skepticism: Fidelity’s chart shows Bitcoin year-on-year growth turning negative while Global M2 YoY is rising above 10%, and Mister Crypto observes that past decoupling phases have often marked major market tops followed by two- to four-year bear markets.

Charles Edwards offered a different explanation, arguing that 2025 marked a move into a "Quantum Event Horizon" and that "Money is repositioning to account for this risk accordingly." The split among analysts highlights uncertainty about what will drive Bitcoin next.

Key Topics

Crypto, Bitcoin, Fidelity Digital Assets, Martyparty, Charles Edwards, Federal Reserve