Bitcoin likely falls first in a major war, then may trade like digital gold

Beincrypto says Bitcoin’s response to a major geopolitical escalation is typically sequential: an initial, liquidity-driven selloff followed, in some scenarios, by a later role as a portable, censorship‑resistant asset. The outlet notes markets often sprint into safety and then reprice the world after the first shock.

The analysis outlines three phases. In the shock week, investors raise cash and Bitcoin often behaves like a high‑beta risk asset, falling alongside equities while gold and the U.S. dollar catch safety bids. In the stabilization phase, Bitcoin can rebound with risk assets if policymakers provide liquidity and backstops, but tighter controls on exchanges, banking rails or stablecoins can make any rebound uneven. In a protracted conflict, Bitcoin’s path depends on dollar liquidity, real yields, capital controls and infrastructure reliability.

What determines outcomes is still uncertain: a rise in real yields or tight USD liquidity hurts Bitcoin, while easier policy can help it; usable rails matter because portability is valuable only if people can move value. The article’s three‑question framework is sequential—does deleveraging force selling, do policy backstops follow, and do capital controls plus usable rails create a portability premium—and concludes Bitcoin would likely be hit first but can end up trading like digital gold if conflicts drag on.

Key Topics

Crypto, Bitcoin, World War Iii, Capital Controls, Gold, Sanctions