Bitcoin Loses Bullish Weekly Trend After 126 Weeks

Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below its 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since October 2023, ending a technical uptrend that lasted 882 days. The weekly close finished under the average near $67,628, breaking a support streak that began in late 2023 and refocusing attention on onchain cost-basis levels and the market’s historical interaction with this moving average.

The 200-week EMA has often separated expansion phases from deeper corrective periods, and losing it as support raises the prospect it could become resistance on any recovery. "This technically means that the EMA has been lost as support and that price could turn it into resistance on any upcoming recovery," Rekt Capital wrote.

Previous cycles show reclaiming the EMA has taken time: roughly 14 weeks in 2018, about eight weeks after the March 2020 shock, and nearly 30 weeks in 2022, averaging about 17 to 18 weeks across those instances. Momentum indicators suggest longer-term participation is cooling.

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