Bitcoin market bottom may be nearing when measured against gold

Rony Szuster, Head of Research at Mercado Bitcoin, says bitcoin’s path to a market bottom could come as soon as next month if measured against gold. Historically, bitcoin bear markets have lasted 12-13 months, which suggests a potential downturn into late 2026 if priced in U.S.

dollars; the most recent dollar peak was about $126,000 in October 2025. Priced in gold, bitcoin reached its high in January 2025. Applying the same 12- to 13-month pattern would place a potential bottom around February 2026, with a recovery possibly beginning in March.

The shift reflects wider macro forces — aggressive trade tariffs, domestic institutional disputes in the U.S. and rising tensions with China and Iran — and an explosion in the World Uncertainty Index that helped push gold up more than 80% to $5,280 as capital rotated into bullion.

United States

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