Bitcoin Mayer Multiple falls to 2022 lows — could BTC drop to $40,000?

The Bitcoin Mayer Multiple fell to 0.65, matching the deep bear market lows seen in May 2022. The indicator, which compares Bitcoin’s current price to its 200-day moving average, has slipped below the green “oversold” band; analyst On-Chain College called this a period usually reserved for the darkest days of bear markets.

A Mayer Multiple around 0.6 means BTC is trading roughly 40% below its 200-day MA, a move that analyst CryptosRus said only appears during full-blown capitulation. Some observers view such lows as prime long-term buying opportunities, while others note that extreme Mayer lows do not always mark the final price floor: in mid-2022 the indicator bottomed near 0.47 and BTC fell another 58% to $15,500 over the following months.

Questions remain about where the true bottom might lie. The 200-week moving average sits near $58,000 and is often seen as the ultimate bear-market support, about 15% below the current price; in extreme scenarios models suggest a further 30% drop toward the $40,000 zone.

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