Bitcoin Price Prediction: What To Expect From BTC In March 2026

Bitcoin enters March bruised after close to 15% losses in February and five consecutive red months since October 2025. The seasonal backdrop offers little comfort — the median March return is −1.31% — and the 30-day rolling correlation with the S&P 500 sits at 0.55, up from about 0.50 in October 2025, keeping BTC linked to equities as tariffs and potential geopolitical flareups weigh on risk appetite.

Spot ETF flows suggest a quieter tone beneath the pain. November 2025 outflows peaked at $3.48 billion, then fell to $1.09 billion in December, $1.61 billion in January and just $206.52 million in February, a 94% reduction from November. "The ETF outflows are more consistent with deleveraging than institutional abandonment," Orkun Mahir Kılıç said, while Nima Beni added that the data looks like "retail panic, creating institutional opportunity," noting that 94% of ETF Bitcoin holdings remained despite maximum fear.

On-chain metrics back the case for cooling sell pressure.

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