Bitcoin Price Recovery Could be Capped at $78K: Here’s Why

Bitcoin is in a relief rally after a 17% recovery from sub-$60,000 lows, but the $78,000 level remains key to reversing the broader downtrend. CryptoQuant data show net taker volume has been positive since the US and Israel-Iran war began, signaling that demand returned across derivatives markets.

"This shows taker buy volume has outpaced sell volume," Coinbureau CEO Nic Puckrin said, adding: "Bitcoin buyers are in control." The bull score index, which combines fundamental and technical metrics, rose to 30 from 10 on March 6 — the highest since late October 2025.

CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said the phase has "switched from 'extra bearish' to 'bearish,'" and added: "We are still in a bear market, but in a relief rally." Price action has consolidated for more than four weeks between $62,000 and $72,000, leaving BTC sandwiched between the realized price at $54,400 and the true market mean at $78,000, Glassnode said.

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