Bitcoin's Ramadan Rally Appears Less Likely in 2026

Bitcoin’s often-cited Ramadan rally looks weaker in 2026, though the volatility pattern many traders have watched remains visible. Across six of the last seven Ramadans (2019–2025) the market typically showed an early sharp move, then choppy trading, and a later pullback; 2020 was the main exception when a stronger macro recovery dominated.

The recurring shape was timing-and-structure rather than a guaranteed upside: front-loaded volatility with mid-period exhaustion and a weaker finish. In some years Bitcoin still ended Ramadan higher overall, but price frequently pulled back after a mid-Ramadan peak.

This year’s first week played out differently. Bitcoin opened with chop, then a sharp flush, and only after that began a bounce attempt, suggesting the market looks weaker than in stronger Ramadan years, at least so far. On-chain data is mixed. The Binance Buying Power Index has fallen to levels that previously signaled compressed conditions, which could allow a relief bounce if selling fades.

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