Why "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" Feels Broken in Today’s Crypto Market

I entered the crypto market at a time when Bitcoin traded around $6,000. Back then it sat between experimentation and finance, and the market reacted to headlines or influential voices in a knee-jerk manner. A study of Bitcoin and Dogecoin during the 2020–2021 cycle found statistically significant increases in price and trading volume on days when Musk posted about cryptocurrencies, with Dogecoin's volatility response more than ten times stronger than Bitcoin's.

Fast forward to today, and something feels different. Earlier cycles were defined by immediacy: thinner liquidity, fewer derivatives in price discovery, and more visible spot positioning. In February 2021, Tesla disclosed a $1.5 billion Bitcoin purchase when the price was around $38,000, and within hours the price surged more than 15% in a single session to above $44,000.

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