Buying Bitcoin? Hold BTC for at Least Three Years to Avoid Losses

Data shared by André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, shows that holding Bitcoin for at least three years has historically cut the chance of losses to just 0.70%. The risk falls further with longer windows — 0.2% over five years and 0% over ten. Shorter holding periods carry much higher odds of loss: intraday buyers faced a 47.1% chance of being underwater, 44.7% over one week, 43.2% over one month and 24.3% over one year.

The realized price metric tells a similar story. As of Saturday, Bitcoin was down roughly 50% from its October 2025 high and trading around $65,000, well above the three-to-five-year realized price of $34,780, which left that multi-year cohort sitting on about a 90% profit.

Many recent buyers were in the red: the 6m–12m cohort had a cost basis near $101,250, about a 35% unrealized loss, while the 1y–2y cohort’s cost basis was about $78,150, roughly a 15% loss.

bitcoin, btc, andré dragosch, bitwise europe, holding period, realized price, cost basis, unrealized loss, intraday buyers, october 2025