China posts record $1.19 trillion trade surplus in 2025

China announced the world’s largest trade surplus ever for 2025, with a balance of $1.19 trillion, a 20 percent increase from 2024, according to data released by the country’s General Administration of Customs. The surplus had already exceeded $1 trillion through November, and December alone registered $114.14 billion, the third-highest monthly surplus on record, trailing only January and June of last year.

Exports to the United States fell but rose to much of the rest of the world. Officials and analysts cited several drivers: Chinese factories shifted sales to other regions and in some cases bypassed U.S. tariffs by shipping goods to the United States through Southeast Asia and elsewhere; a chronic weakness in imports driven by an industrial policy to replace foreign goods and build self-reliance; a weak renminbi that was allowed to fall during the Covid-19 pandemic and has only barely recovered; and domestic deflation alongside higher inflation in Western markets, which made Chinese exports more attractive.

Beijing reaffirmed self-reliance goals in October when it unveiled an initial sketch of its five-year plan through 2030, and a housing market crash since 2021 has weakened household spending so many products are exported instead. China has not run a trade deficit since 1993, and its 2025 surplus exceeds earlier records even after adjusting for inflation: Japan’s peak in 1993 converts to about $214 billion today and Germany’s 2017 peak to about $364 billion.

Key Topics

Business, China, Renminbi, Trade Surplus, International Monetary Fund