Computer model backs Under in Patriots-Broncos as Championship Round lines set

Cbssports reports the 2026 NFL Championship Round will be played Sunday with the AFC title game at 3 p.m. ET (Patriots at Broncos) and the NFC title game at 6:30 p.m. ET (Rams at Seahawks), and an advanced computer model is backing the Under (40.5) in Patriots-Broncos.

The current lines list Denver as a 5.5-point home underdog and Seattle giving 2.5 points to the Rams. The Broncos lost Bo Nix for the season (ankle), leaving Jarrett Stidham — who "hasn't thrown a pass in two years" — to start; the report also notes Denver has the rest edge. The article adds that Denver has been an underdog five times this season with the Under hitting in four of those games, while New England has failed to reach the total in four of its last six games as an away favorite. It also cites Drake Maye's recent turnovers, including four total fumbles plus an interception against Houston last week.

The model simulates each game 10,000 times and, per the report, has been up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception and is on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating to 2024. The model projects the teams to combine for 40 points in Patriots-Broncos, with the Under hitting in well over 50% of simulations, and it has locked in picks — including two A-rated selections — for both title games.

Key Topics

Sports, Patriots, Broncos, Jarrett Stidham, Bo Nix, Drake Maye