Crypto Executive to Pay $50,000 After Missing Ether Year-End Target
Crypto executive Kain Warwick will pay $50,000 after losing a high-profile wager that Ether (ETH) would reach $25,000 by the end of the year. The bet, placed last November, reflects a wider pattern of optimistic price forecasts that did not materialize during 2025.
Ether closed trading on Dec. 31 at roughly $2,980, around 13.7% lower than where it started the year, according to CoinMarketCap. Over the past 30 days ETH was down about 2.18%, reflecting continuing volatility in the market.
The wager originated from an exchange between Warwick and Multicoin managing partner Kyle Samani. Samani expressed doubt that Ether could recover to $25,000 by year-end, and Warwick disagreed, accepting a bet at 10:1 odds that the cryptocurrency could reach that level.
Samani publicized the outcome on the social platform X, telling Warwick: "Time to pay up." Warwick is now set to fulfil that obligation.
Warwick said he would adjust his expectations following the loss. Speaking to Cointelegraph, he lowered his target for 2026 to what he described as a "measly $10,000." He also noted: "Akkkkktually [Actually] ETH is up 50% from when we made our bet. Just needed another clean 8x for me to win."
The wager highlights a group of prominent market commentators who issued bullish ETH targets during 2025. Just weeks before Warwick doubled down on Ether, BitMine chair Tom Lee projected that Ethereum could end the year around $10,000 to $12,000, saying on the Bankless podcast: "For Ethereum, somewhere between [$10,000] and $12,000."
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, appearing on the same Bankless episode, reiterated a similar $10,000 prediction, stating he was "going to stay consistent" with that outlook.
None of those forecasts materialized. The market was jolted in October when a roughly $19 billion crypto liquidation on Oct. 10 triggered a downtrend that pushed Ether as low as $2,767 before it began a gradual recovery.
Despite the missed price targets, Ethereum achieved several technical milestones during 2025. The protocol underwent two major upgrades: Pectra in May and Fusaka in December. The Ethereum Foundation said Fusaka brings Ethereum a step closer to providing "near-instant transactions," a change intended to improve throughput and user experience on the network.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin commented on the network's broader goals, saying that Ethereum needed to do more to achieve its mission of "[building] the world computer that serves as a central infrastructure piece of a more free and open internet."
The contrast between technological progress and price performance underscores a recurring theme in crypto markets: protocol improvements do not always translate immediately into higher asset prices. Market liquidity shocks, macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment can outweigh technical achievements in the short term.
Warwick's wager and subsequent adjustment in expectations illustrate how prominent industry participants publicly calibrate their views in response to market outcomes. The exchange between Warwick and Samani also demonstrates the role of public bets and commentary in shaping market narratives during periods of heightened interest and volatility.
As the industry moves into 2026, analysts and market participants will watch whether recent protocol upgrades and ongoing adoption trends accelerate growth in transaction volumes or attract new institutional interest, and whether such changes ultimately influence Ether's market price.
Key Topics
Kain Warwick, Kyle Samani, Multicoin, Ether Price, Ether (eth) Price 2025, 25,000 Ether Bet, Ethereum Price Targets, Pectra Upgrade, Fusaka Upgrade, Ethereum Technical Milestones, Crypto Market Volatility, October 10 Liquidation, Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum 2026 Outlook