CryptoQuant Says Bitcoin Entered Bear Market in November, Predicts $56K–$60K Bottom
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, said Bitcoin may already be two months into a bear market based on several market metrics, including the one-year moving average.
Speaking on the Milk Road show, Moreno said most of the indicators that make up CryptoQuant’s bull score index turned bearish in early November and have not recovered. The index, which ranges from 0 to 100, assesses market conditions through measures such as network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand and liquidity.
"For me the last confirmation, it's a technical indicator, which is the price going below its one-year moving average, that's the technical indicator that I would say confirms this," Moreno said. A one-year moving average tracks the average price of an asset over 12 months and is commonly used to indicate long-term trend changes.
Market data show Bitcoin began 2025 around $93,000 and reached a peak of $126,080 in October, before finishing the year below its starting level, according to CoinGecko. The cryptocurrency was trading around $88,543 as of Friday.
If Bitcoin is indeed in a bear market, that would run counter to a number of analyst forecasts that view 2026 as a growth year for the asset. Moreno noted that past crypto bear markets have produced significant drawdowns across the sector and that recoveries can take years.
Based on Bitcoin’s realized price and prior market behavior, Moreno expects the bear-market bottom to land between $56,000 and $60,000 within the next year. He described the realized price as a useful historical reference point for bottoms.
"Historically, what happened in previous bear markets, you see the price coming down to what is called the realized price, which is basically the average price at which the holders of Bitcoin purchased their Bitcoin," he said. "It deviates a lot to the upside in the bull market and then when there’s a bear market, that should be the, I would say maybe the base expectation for a bottom for a price bottom during a bear market."
A move from Bitcoin’s all-time high to the mid-$50,000 range would represent roughly a 55% drawdown. Moreno framed that magnitude as less severe than drawdowns seen in earlier cycles, which have sometimes reached 70% to 80%.
He also argued that this bear market appears structurally more stable than previous episodes. Moreno pointed to the absence of recent high-profile industry collapses, contrasting the current environment with the shocks of 2022 when the Terra ecosystem failed in May, Celsius Network filed for bankruptcy in June and FTX collapsed in November.
Additional factors cited by Moreno that could temper downside pressure include periodic institutional accumulation, the presence of ETFs and a larger pool of traders and investors willing to enter the market. He suggested these participants contribute ongoing demand and that some vehicles do not sell during downturns.
"Talking about demand again, there are other types of players now that buy more periodically. In previous bear markets, the demand was basically, you know contracting. I would say that structurally, we now have more like institutional or ETFs that don't sell, and also there's some buying there," Moreno said.
The CryptoQuant bull score index and the one-year moving average are among several tools analysts use to evaluate market regimes. The index aggregates multiple on-chain and market data points to generate a composite view of bullish or bearish conditions.
Observers will monitor whether Bitcoin sustains levels below its one-year moving average and whether realized-price dynamics play out as Moreno expects. If the market follows the historical pattern he described, the realized price could serve as a reference for the cycle low, potentially placing the bottom in the $56,000–$60,000 range over the coming year.
For market participants, the key questions remain the timing and depth of any further declines, the resilience of demand from institutional and retail buyers, and whether the absence of recent systemic failures will translate into a shorter or shallower downturn compared with prior cycles.
Key Topics
Bitcoin Bear Market, One-year Moving Average, Cryptoquant Bull Score Index, Julio Moreno, Realized Price, Bitcoin Price Targets, Institutional Accumulation, Bitcoin Drawdown, Etf Impact On Bitcoin, On-chain Metrics, Market Liquidity, Investor Profitability, Bitcoin Market Regimes