CSIS analysis: Russia's Ukraine advances average 15–70 meters a day — slower than WWI Somme

A new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies says Russia's advance in Ukraine over the last two years has been among the slowest in modern war, with average rates of between 15 and 70 meters per day even during its fiercest offensives, researchers Seth G.

Jones and Riley McCabe wrote on Tuesday. Jones and McCabe calculated straight-line shifts in battle territory and found Russia advanced about 70 meters per day in Pokrovsk (roughly 50 kilometers total over two years), about 23 meters per day toward Kupiansk, and roughly 15 meters per day toward Chasiv Yar.

The researchers noted those rates are slower than the five-month Allied advance at the World War I Battle of the Somme, which they said averaged about 80 meters per day, and much slower than other historical campaigns such as the Soviet advance on the Leningrad front in 1943 (about 1,000 meters per day) and the 1918 Battle of Belleau Wood (about 410 meters per day).

Jones and McCabe argued the war’s attritional character and the mass use of first-person-view drones favor defenders, making vehicle movement difficult within roughly 15 kilometers of the front line. They also noted Russia has seized roughly 75,000 square kilometers of Ukraine since 2022 but that these gains fall short of Moscow’s goal to militarily conquer the country.

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