Eight major business and economic questions heading into 2026

DealBook editors lay out the biggest business and economic questions for 2026, from artificial intelligence to politics and oil. Can A.I. move beyond pilots and reshape industries? An M.I.T. study found that despite $30 billion to $40 billion in A.I. spending, 95 percent of organizations reported no return.

In 2026 more disruptive, scaled uses of A.I. may emerge and show how the technology affects firms and professions. How will President Trump’s policies influence growth and inflation? Strong G.D.P. growth leaves political pressure on the Fed to cut rates, while corporate tax cuts and tariffs could lift profits but also risk higher inflation—testing the next Fed chair’s ability to build consensus.

Is the fast-growing private credit market a systemic risk? Private credit was about $3 trillion at the start of 2025 and could rise to $5 trillion by 2029, Morgan Stanley says. Moody’s notes banks have nearly $300 billion in loans outstanding to private-credit providers, raising concerns about liquidity and contagion if losses mount.

Will prediction markets keep expanding? Kalshi and Polymarket gained prominence for accurately calling the 2024 election and have attracted huge valuations and trading volumes. Regulators and state lawsuits could shape how far these markets grow beyond politics and sports. Is crypto too big to fail?

Key Topics

Business, Artificial Intelligence, Mit, Private Credit, Kalshi, Bitcoin