Eight Big Business and Economic Questions to Watch in 2026

DealBook’s team lays out eight major questions for 2026 that could shape markets, policy and corporate strategy over the next 12 months. Will A.I. move beyond pilots? An M.I.T. study found organizations had invested $30 billion to $40 billion in A.I. but saw little return, with 95 percent getting zero return.

While tools like ChatGPT have boosted individual productivity, 2026 may see more disruptive A.I. deployments leave R&D and change how industries operate. How will President Trump’s policies affect the economy? The U.S. entered the year with robust G.D.P. growth and Mr. Trump is likely to pressure the Fed to cut rates and name a new Fed chair.

Corporate tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill could lift profits and capex, but those moves, plus tariffs, could stoke inflation and complicate Fed policymaking. Is private credit a systemic risk? Jeffrey Gundlach warned that fast-growing private lending — a $3 trillion market at the start of 2025, projected to reach $5 trillion by 2029 — lacks the transparency and liquidity of public markets.

Moody’s said banks have nearly $300 billion in loans outstanding to private credit providers, a potential channel for losses to spread if conditions sour. Can prediction markets keep growing? Kalshi and Polymarket rose to prominence after the 2024 election and have since expanded into sports and other markets.

Key Topics

Business, Artificial Intelligence, President Trump, Private Credit, Prediction Markets, Bitcoin