Ethereum between 9% downside risk and 12% pattern invalidation

Ethereum price sits between a roughly 9% breakdown risk and about a 12% pattern invalidation, according to Beincrypto, after a weak start to January that leaves traders split on direction. On the daily chart, Ethereum is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern where a close below the neckline would imply the ~9% downside, while a move about 12% higher would invalidate the pattern.

Momentum shows a hidden bearish RSI divergence from early December to early January and no bullish divergence has formed since. On-chain HODL Waves show short-term supply shifted sharply between January 6 and 9: the 1-week to 1-month cohort fell from 7.44% to 3.92% (a 47% reduction) while the 1-day to 1-week cohort rose from 1.34% to 2.21% (a 65% jump).

Long-term holder accumulation slowed as net inflows fell from roughly 179,000 ETH on January 4 to about 135,500 ETH by January 9, a 24% decline. Derivatives are skewed toward shorts, with cumulative short liquidation exposure near $3.38 billion versus long exposure around $1.57 billion (shorts outweigh longs by roughly 115%), creating short-squeeze risk if key levels hold.

Key Topics

Crypto, Ethereum, Relative Strength Index, Hodl Waves, Long-term Holders, Short Squeeze