Ethereum Hits Breakdown Target — But $1,000 Drop Remains Possible

Ethereum reached the projected breakdown target near $1,800 and slipped to $1,740 before bouncing about 23%. While that recovery looks encouraging at first glance, charts, on-chain data and technical metrics point to weak support and persistent downside risk. Price action shows a hidden bearish divergence: the market made lower highs even as the RSI moved higher, suggesting buyers lack conviction.

On the 12‑hour chart a bearish pole-and-flag has formed, and On‑Balance Volume remains weak and close to breaking its ascending trendline — a breakdown could lead to another leg lower and roughly 50% deeper losses from the lower trendline levels. The rebound appears driven mainly by short‑term traders.

Short‑term holder NUPL recovered from about -0.72 to -0.47, an improvement of roughly 35%, while 30‑day rolling hodler net position change shows long‑term holder outflows widening from -10,681 ETH to around -19,399 ETH — an increase in net selling of roughly 82% in four days.

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