Exchanges tighten rules as Chinese retail traders drive metals futures rally

Chinese retail traders have driven a sharp surge in futures trading across aluminium, copper, nickel and tin, making industrial metals one of the country's most crowded trades. Combined futures volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped month‑over‑month, reaching 78 million lots in January 2026, with nickel alone accounting for about 30 million lots.

The spike has prompted repeated interventions from exchanges. Shanghai and regional futures markets have raised margins and tightened trading rules 38 times over the past two months in efforts to curb speculation, a reflection of concern about excessive leverage and the speed of momentum‑driven flows.

Activity on social media and WeChat trading groups has amplified the rally, with short‑term momentum strategies and leverage popular among individual investors. Tin and nickel saw especially extraordinary activity, with daily volumes at times dwarfing typical physical consumption benchmarks, suggesting derivatives speculation has outpaced industrial demand.

China, Shanghai

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