Fed Policy in Focus With 70,000 Nonfarm Payrolls Increase Expected

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the delayed January Nonfarm Payrolls on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect payrolls to rise by 70K, the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.4%, and Average Hourly Earnings to slow to 3.6% year-on-year from 3.8%.

The release was postponed after a partial government shutdown and rescheduled after the House passed a package to end the shutdown. TD Securities forecasts a subdued 45K gain overall — 40K in private jobs and 5K in government — with private strength concentrated in healthcare and construction; they expect AHE to increase 0.3% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year.

Traders will use the report to reassess Federal Reserve policy and dollar direction. Markets have reacted to Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed chair and to comments from Governors Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson that the labor market appears balanced in a low-hire, low-fire environment.

United States

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