Fidelity analysis flags $65,000 as key Bitcoin support if 2026 turns bearish

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, said new analysis flags $65,000 as the next key Bitcoin price battleground if 2026 becomes a classic bear market year. Timmer’s power-law work shows BTC had closely followed its long-term trendline during much of the current bull market but could now be due for a retest of a lower support line, “one currently at $45,000.” He acknowledged that “it is following the internet S-curve a lot closer now than the power law curve.” Timmer said: "For now, the line in the sand for Bitcoin is $65k (previous high), and below that $45k.

The latter is the power law trendline." He added that if Bitcoin consolidates for the next year that trendline could get closer to $65k and “could become a do-or-die line in the sand for Bitcoin.” The analysis also questioned whether Bitcoin still obeys four-year price cycles. Timmer said halving cycles are impacting price less and less with time, but that bear markets will still happen.

Key Topics

Crypto, Bitcoin, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments, Power Law, Halving Cycle