Final 2026 Oscar predictions, including a Chalamet vs Jordan upset

Two months ago this season looked like a predictable run of front-runners. With less than a week until the 98th Academy Awards and voting now closed, the landscape has changed: expected leaders stumbled, new contenders surged and once-dismissed films fought back.

Below are my final picks for the major categories. Best Picture has narrowed into a two-film duel between One Battle After Another and Sinners. Paul Thomas Anderson’s film had been the early favorite and carries the weight of a long-awaited moment for its director, while Ryan Coogler’s Sinners broke out of genre constraints with 16 nominations and widespread acting attention.

My call: Sinners for Best Picture, Paul Thomas Anderson for Best Director, with Coogler and Anderson taking their respective screenplay races. The acting fields feel more split. Jessie Buckley is all but certain to win Best Actress after sweeping the precursors, and Michael B.

oscars 2026, academy awards, best picture, sinners, one battle, paul thomas, ryan coogler, best director, jessie buckley, best actress