Four signs Bitcoin may be in an early bear market

Bitcoin has fallen 23.4% so far this year and is trading at $67,214 after a more than 6% decline in 2025, leaving traders to ask when the downtrend will end. Four key signals suggest the market may be in the early stages of a bear phase and that further downside is possible.

Investor flow data offers the first warning: CryptoQuant shows new investor inflows have turned negative, implying the recent sell-off is not being absorbed by fresh capital. That pattern—marginal buyers exiting and price moving through internal rotation rather than net inflows—matches transitions seen after all-time highs and is consistent with contracting liquidity and narrowing participation.

Technical and cycle indicators add to the downside risk. Analyst Jelle notes prior major bear markets bottomed below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement; that level from the current cycle high sits at $57,000, and a 30% drop below it would imply a bottom near $42,000, with some forecasts even below $40,000.

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