Four US Economic Signals That Could Move Bitcoin This Holiday Week

Bitcoin hovered near $68,600 on February 16, 2026, as markets remained sensitive after a sharp retracement from 2025 highs above $126,000. Tariff tensions, sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate cuts have kept risk assets on edge, and the Presidents’ Day holiday means thinner liquidity that could amplify moves when major data arrives midweek.

Traders are watching four key releases: the January FOMC minutes on Wednesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and Friday’s final Q4 GDP revision alongside December PCE inflation. The CME FedWatch tool prices roughly 9.8% odds of a March rate cut, so even modest surprises could determine whether Bitcoin tests $70,000 resistance or revisits the $60,000 support zone.

The FOMC minutes will shed light on internal debates after the Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, particularly on inflation risks, labor strength and tariff-related pressures.

United States

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