Four-Week Oil Shock Could Tighten Liquidity and Pressure Bitcoin

Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil back to the center of market risk. President Trump said the conflict with Iran could last four weeks, and Polymarket flagged that Maersk has suspended all transit through the passage that handles roughly 20% of global crude.

Tanker insurance costs have surged as traders price potential supply shocks. Goldman Sachs places oil’s "fair value" between $1 and $15 per barrel depending on the severity of a one-month disruption, estimating a $15 rise for a full closure without offsets. Some analysts have warned of crude spiking toward $120–$150, while others noted the initial spike has already retraced below $70, underscoring volatile sentiment.

A sustained jump in crude could lift inflation expectations just as markets were pricing in rate cuts, pushing Treasury yields higher and tightening liquidity.

Iran, Strait of Hormuz

oil, hormuz strait, iran, maersk, polymarket, tanker insurance, supply shock, goldman sachs, inflation expectations, treasury yields