Gemini executive forecasts institutional reshaping of crypto in 2026

Beincrypto reports that Patrick Liou, Gemini’s Director of Institutional, shared five predictions he says will mark a structural break for crypto markets in 2026. Liou argues Bitcoin’s traditional four‑year cycle is ending as ETFs, institutional custody and deeper derivatives markets absorb supply shocks; Bitcoin is now roughly 30% below its highs rather than posting the 75–90% drawdowns of prior cycles, and options implied volatility sits in the 25–40% range versus historical peaks near 80%.

He says BTC is trading more like a macro asset tied to liquidity and positioning resets than a calendar‑driven halving trade. Liou expects crypto to become a bipartisan US midterm issue as market‑structure legislation — including the stalled CLARITY Act — advances through negotiations, and several analysts expect a possible Senate breakthrough in early 2026.

He also forecasts growth in crypto‑powered prediction markets (citing Polymarket and new entrants, including exchange‑backed platforms), and predicts consolidation among digital asset treasuries after recent NAV compression and equity underperformance; the report notes MicroStrategy’s stock ended 2025 with about a 60% loss.

Key Topics

Crypto, Patrick Liou, Gemini, Bitcoin, Clarity Act, Microstrategy