Glassnode: Liquidity will decide Bitcoin's next rally
Glassnode says liquidity will determine Bitcoin’s next sustained rally after bulls held the $80,700–$83,400 support zone and futures data pointed to a potential short-term liquidity grab near $93,500. Glassnode said market attention has shifted to liquidity-sensitive indicators, particularly the realized profit/loss ratio (90-day moving average).
The firm noted that strong price recoveries, including mid-cycle recoveries over the past two years, only occurred once that ratio stayed above 5, which has consistently signaled renewed liquidity inflows and capital rotation back into Bitcoin. Glassnode also flagged rising supply stress: more than 22% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is currently held at a loss, a condition previously seen in Q1 2022 and Q2 2018.
The report said this increases correction risk and warned that if Bitcoin fails to hold key support levels — specifically the −1 standard deviation band of the short-term holder cost basis and the true market mean — selling from long-term holders could resume. CryptoQuant data shows monthly BTC inflows to Binance are averaging roughly 5,700 BTC, less than half the long-term average of around 12,000 BTC and the lowest level since 2020.
Since exchange inflows are associated with selling, persistently low inflows suggest investors are holding rather than preparing to sell, which reduces immediate downside risk but does not replace the need for liquidity confirmation.
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