Goldman Sachs forecasts 11% global equity return in 2026 as Bitcoin correlation fades

Beincrypto reports Goldman Sachs projects global equities will return 11% in 2026, including dividends, driven by earnings growth and broad economic expansion. In its outlook the firm forecasts global GDP growth of 2.8% and expects the US Federal Reserve to deliver modest policy easing this year.

Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief global equity strategist, wrote: “We think that returns in 2026 are likely to be driven more by fundamental profit growth rather than by rising valuations. Our analysts’ 12-month global forecasts indicate equity prices, weighted by regional market cap, are expected to climb 9% and return 11% with dividends, in US dollars (as of January 6, 2026).

Most of these returns are earnings-driven.” The report gives index targets including 7,600 for the S&P 500 (implying an 11% total return), 625 for the STOXX 600 (7%), 3,600 for Japan’s TOPIX (4%) and 825 for the MSCI Asia Pacific ex‑Japan (12%), and cautions 2026 gains are unlikely to replicate the sharp rally seen in 2025 amid historically high valuations; it also notes continued market attention on AI without saying this necessarily signals an AI bubble.

Key Topics

Business, Goldman Sachs, Peter Oppenheimer, Bitcoin, Federal Reserve, Spot Bitcoin Etfs