Half of past 24 months positive; economist sees 88% chance Bitcoin rises

Economist Timothy Peterson noted that 50% of the past 24 months have been positive for Bitcoin and said this implies an 88% chance the cryptocurrency will be higher 10 months from now, posting the observation on X. He counts the number of positive months in any 24-month period to identify potential inflection points.

CoinGlass shows Bitcoin posted gains in January, April, May, June, July and September in 2025, while the other six months closed lower. Traders on Polymarket assign a 17% probability that December will be Bitcoin’s best month of 2026, with November just ahead at 18%.

CoinGlass also finds November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month on average since 2013, with an average return of 41.13%. At the time of publication CoinMarketCap listed Bitcoin at $68,173, nearly 25% below its level at the start of the year; it began trading around $80,000 in February.

bitcoin, timothy peterson, 24 months, positive months, 88% chance, coinglass, polymarket, november, december, coinmarketcap