How an Oil Shock Could Trigger Bitcoin’s Next Liquidity Selloff

Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are pushing oil risk higher, with roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil flow passing between Iran and Oman. Escalating military activity has sharply lifted war-risk insurance: premiums on oil tankers have surged more than 50%, and insurance for a $100 million vessel jumped from about $250,000 to $375,000 per voyage.

The spike has raised fears of supply disruption; several analysts suggest crude could reach $120–$130 per barrel if disruptions persist. A crude surge of that magnitude would likely reignite inflation expectations just as markets had been positioned for easing.

Higher oil feeds into transportation, manufacturing and consumer costs, putting upward pressure on CPI and potentially forcing central banks to delay or scale back expected rate cuts — a repricing that would push Treasury yields higher. “Wars are generally inflationary, driving up commodity prices and widening fiscal deficits,” 21Shares Head of Macro Stephen Coltman said.

Iran; Oman, Strait of Hormuz

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