How Much Project Hail Mary Needs to Make to Profit

Project Hail Mary, directed by Phil Lord and Chris Miller and starring Ryan Gosling, adapts Andy Weir's novel and has generated positive early word of mouth. Still, it represents a financial risk for Amazon MGM: a $200 million sci-fi tentpole that isn’t tied to an established franchise and follows several recent box-office disappointments for the studio, including Crime 101, After the Hunt and Melania.

With a reported production budget of $200 million, the typical early theatrical split leaves studios and theaters roughly even before international markets take additional shares. The conventional rule of thumb is that a film must earn about twice its production budget once marketing is factored in, which would put a hit threshold for Project Hail Mary near $500 million worldwide.

MGM has signaled it measures success differently—seeking to recoup marketing and distribution in the theatrical window and treating theatrical runs as paid marketing ahead of streaming—an approach that has drawn pushback.

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