How Much Will Trump’s Approval Rating Matter in the Midterms?

President Trump’s approval rating has slipped to 40 percent approve and 56 percent disapprove — his lowest this term — even as unrest in Minneapolis begins to fade and immigration agents are being pulled from the city. That decline raises a central question for the midterms: how much will his standing shape results?

Nationwide presidential approval historically correlates reasonably well with midterm outcomes, and a 40 percent approval could imply Republicans losing roughly 30 House seats. The 2022 midterms were an exception, when the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v.

Wade and Republican efforts to overturn the 2020 election focused voters on abortion and democracy and helped Democrats. This year offers few comparable tailwinds for Republicans; Democratic turnout advantages and defections by some Republican-leaning voters are already visible, including a recent special election in a red Texas State Senate district where Democrat Taylor Rehmet won by double digits despite an R+19 electorate (49-30).

United States, Minneapolis, Texas

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