How Oscar Betting Odds Work: The Man Behind the Lines

Awards betting has grown into a major industry, and betting odds have become a central way to predict the Oscars. The market has expanded rapidly — on Polymarket, $30 million was wagered on Best Picture in 2026, up from $5.3 million a year earlier — and Johnny Avello, who started setting Oscar lines in the mid-1990s and is now in his eighth year at DraftKings, has been at the center of that change.

DraftKings’ operation has grown from a single state, New Jersey, to ten jurisdictions as prediction markets broaden access. Avello’s team begins offering odds in the fall, using expert reads from festival premieres to set opening numbers, then adjusts them as money comes in and precursors reveal voter trends.

The biggest movements come in real time around live award shows; when Michael B.

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