IDC warns memory shift to AI datacenters could cut PC shipments by up to 8.9% in 2026

The International Data Corporation (IDC) says a shift in memory production toward AI data centers could trigger a major downturn for the PC market. Memory makers have redirected capacity away from conventional DRAM and NAND used in PCs, smartphones and other consumer devices toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-capacity DDR5 for AI servers.

That has tightened supply and pushed up the price of RAM available to PC makers. In its worst-case scenario, IDC predicts PC shipments could fall as much as 8.9 percent in 2026 and PC memory prices could rise roughly 6 to 8 percent that year. The report notes consumer electronics are already feeling the effects, and one consumer-facing RAM brand has already collapsed.

Some PC makers have begun passing costs to customers. Modular laptop maker Framework has raised prices on some laptops and parts and warned further increases are likely in coming months. “AI PCs,” which require larger amounts of RAM to run local models, were expected to help revive PC sales, but their greater memory needs make them especially exposed to the scramble for components.

The smartphone market could also see impacts: IDC says average selling prices might increase 6 to 8 percent and shipments could drop as much as 5.2 percent in its pessimistic model. Companies with large cash reserves and long-term supply deals, like Apple and Samsung, may be able to absorb higher memory costs for a year or two.

Key Topics

Tech, Pcs, Memory, Dram, Smartphones