Investors ignoring Iran-war oil 'nightmare,' says Bob McNally

Oil is up nearly 50% since the start of the Iran war, pump prices are climbing, and calls of recession or stagflation are growing. Bob McNally, an energy consultant and former White House advisor, says he's surprised crude hasn't spiked more and that the market has been slow to price in the size of the problem.

Later that day, Iran responded to an Israeli strike by attacking a major liquefied natural gas complex in Qatar, sending energy prices up. McNally argues investors have grown complacent for two reasons. First is confirmation bias: many prefer to focus on temporary fixes like tapping reserves, "closing their eyes and willing the problem to go away." Second is recency bias: traders have been taught to sell price spikes after a string of quickly resolved disruptions.

He points to the Russia-Ukraine shock in 2022, when oil jumped more than 25% to $128 and then reversed within weeks.

iran war, oil prices, crude oil, pump prices, bob mcnally, investor complacency, confirmation bias, recency bias, lng, qatar