Israel Watches Iran Protests Closely but Avoids Direct Intervention

Israel is watching the protests in Iran closely but is unlikely to try to precipitate regime change, former officials and analysts say, viewing the Iranian government as far from the brink of collapse. Israeli analysts argue the demonstrations lack the leadership, numbers and means to topple the regime and say they are being suppressed in part by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Basij militia.

They pointed to reports this week that Iranian security forces had killed thousands of demonstrators. “If there were millions of people on the street, it would be very difficult to stop them,” said Sima Shine, a former Mossad Iran expert. “But we don’t see millions. We see thousands.” Officials and experts said Israel would be unlikely to attack Iran unless it joined a U.S.-led operation or Iran attacked first, and they warned that any intervention risks dangerous blowback, including a new war.

They added that tools available from afar — social media amplification, cyberattacks — are unlikely to collapse the regime, and that Iran’s internet shutdowns have made it hard even for Israeli intelligence to assess conditions on the ground. Some figures, including Reza Pahlavi, have sought to position themselves as opposition leaders, and Mr.

Pahlavi’s 2023 visit to Israel and promotion by some ministers have drawn scrutiny.

Key Topics

World, Israel, Iran, Revolutionary Guard, Basij, Benjamin Netanyahu