Kalshi and Polymarket missed five Oscar winners

Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket identified 19 of 24 Oscar winners. That performance trailed Polymarket's Golden Globes run in January, when traders called 26 of 28 winners, but still demonstrated the markets' predictive power in most categories. The markets nailed all the major awards — best picture, best director, best actor, best actress, and best screenplay.

Kevin O'Leary said he bet $1,000 on Kalshi that Timothée Chalamet would win best actor; he was wrong when Michael B. Jordan of Sinners took the prize, as both markets had predicted. The five categories the markets missed included best cinematography, where One Battle After Another had been an overwhelming favorite with odds well over 75% but Autumn Durald Arkapaw from Sinners won; best animated short, where Butterfly led in the 50s and 60s but The Girl Who Cried Pearls prevailed; best documentary feature, where The Perfect Neighbor sat at 66% on both markets yet Mr.

kalshi, polymarket, oscars, prediction markets, timothée chalamet, kevin o'leary, sinners, cinematography, animated short, documentary feature